Iranian Nuclear Threat Increasing

On Monday 13th September, the Institute for Science and International Security reported that Iran may be within a month of attaining its first nuclear weapon. Based on data published recently by the International Atomic Energy Agency, one month is said to be the ‘worst-case breakout estimate.’

The Islamic Republic would then be able to produce a ‘significant quantity’ of weapons-grade uranium within three months of that initial achievement.

By the end of August, Iran is said to have produced 10 kilograms of uranium enriched to near 60 percent, requiring just another 30 kilograms to produce a nuclear device.

It was also noted that the Iranians have increased the rate at which they are enriching uranium – something widely reported in the context of negotiations with other countries about lifting sanctions and reflecting Iran’s increasingly aggressive stance in the region.

Thus, the situation in the Middle East is becoming extremely serious, with Israel’s Prime Minister warning on Tuesday that their desire is to work with allies against Iran, but if they have to act alone, they will stop the Islamic Republic from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Naftali Bennett public statementNaftali Bennett statement (screenshot from i24 News report)

He said,

“We presented to our friends in the US a plan of action, as well as to countries in the region,
because we’d be happy if, along with our independent actions, our partners will act.”

“Either way, the responsibility is here, and we will stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
at any price.”

Israel’s Defence Minister, Benny Gantz, appeared to say something different in an interview on Tuesday, but later clarified that Israel would only accept a longer, broader and stronger nuclear agreement with Iran than the previous one.

Gantz also emphasised that he wanted to see a viable Plan B, led by the United States and involving significant political, diplomatic, and economic pressure on Iran by the US, Europe, Russia, and China — along with a credible military threat.

The Israelis know that they are not able to put together international sanctions of this type against Iran. Action of this nature would have to be led by the United States.

But the Israelis are also clear about the need for their own Plan C, which would involve direct military action. Gantz said,

“If push comes to shove, we’ll get there. We’re not America, but we have our capabilities.”

One wonders whether world leaders have grasped the severity of the situation. Indeed, Danny Ayalon, former Israeli ambassador to the United States, says that the Iranians are deliberately trying to lull the international community to sleep.

i24 News interview with Danny Ayalon, 15th September 2021