Ceasefire Chances Close to Zero

Reports have emerged of a document obtained from Hamas that reveals the terror group’s strategy for victory over Israel. It covers the ways they want to manage ceasefire negotiations: maintaining their ability to fight Israel, exhausting Israel’s political and military leaders, and eroding Israel’s resistance through international pressure.

One key method of doing that is by applying psychological pressure on the families of the hostages, both before and during the first phase of any ceasefire.

This strategy is very similar to the five-point one that Benjamin Netanyahu described in his press conference on 4th September: pushing photos and videos of the hostages, increasing psychological pressure on Gallant, blaming Netanyahu, etc.

It has worked well for Hamas over the nine months since the collapse of the November ceasefire. Many observers are convinced that the recent execution of six Israeli hostages was a deliberate part of that strategy.

Western leaders have been very slow to grasp this strategy and have heaped more and more pressure on Israel to yield to Hamas’ demands; the latest example being US President Joe Biden saying Netanyahu is not doing enough to secure the release of the hostages.

But now, at last, some realism seems to be sinking in, with the view that prospects for a phased hostage-ceasefire agreement are ‘close to zero’ and acknowledgement that there is ‘very broad pessimism’ among negotiators.

Netanyahu summarised the reality from Israel’s perspective. They made or agreed to proposals in April, May and August, but Hamas turned all of them down, claiming to accept one but doing so on condition of more than twenty amendments, i.e. declining that one too.

More pressure needs to be applied to Hamas, not Israel.

One of Israel’s best commentators summarised the country’s dilemma in a recent interview, saying:

"The saddest thing is that we are dealing with extremely brutal terrorists
that are happy to capitalise on each and every expression of emotion in Israel."